Category Archives: betting

Mayweather Vs McGregor. Smart Betting

I just wanted to post this before the fight actually happens, which is in about 20 hours time.

I have been watching the UFC since it was on Bravo around the year 2000.  I tape all the fight nights and have been to UFC London when it was at O2, forking out over £150 for a seat that was not even ringside.  I am still however uncertain whether I will even pay the £20 to watch this on PPV.  Reasons for that reluctance are exactly the reasons I tip the unusual but smart bet, below.

I know that Mayweather is the pound for pound best fighter of his generation with a 49-0 record.  I know he is coming out of retirement for this fight.  I know that McGregor has taken over from Rousey as the UFC’s biggest star.  This post is about betting and being smart.

I won good money on Rousey losing – not because it was likely, but because the odds were so ridiculous at 10-1.  I wanted to post my bet slip, to prove this, but I just discovered that Bet365 don’t keep your betting history over a year old.  Betting smart in the UFC is not about what is likely to happen but what a good bet is.  I also won money betting against Conor vs Nick Diaz.   Anything can happen in MMA and any bookie giving odds over 5-1 in a good match up has overpriced it.

In this sporting spectacle, Mayweather Vs McGregor, fought under boxing’s code, there is nothing at stake, except for each man’s pride.  No world championship, no belt.   Great athletes yes, undoubtedly.  But if either were to lose, is it a big deal to either of them, really?  The only argument I can see is perhaps for Mayweather, his record of 49-0 being tarnished by becoming 49-1 may be hard to bear; but given he was in retirement and this is a freak fight and his guaranteed purse is so large, what price the zero?  $100+million? priceless?

The idea that the two pugilists are actually laughing it up big style at the way they are pulling off the biggest con of the millennium to an unsuspecting public seems to be not unlikely.

This isn’t a new conspiracy theory: Rory McIlroy has recently said so much, to be fair to him and there are others equally cynical, I am sure.

If there were a big scandal, which demanded an even bigger rematch, that would not surprise anyone, would it?!  It is after all the purse which is the biggest thing and the main if not only thing in this fight.  These two don’t even have a history of animosity – it has all only come out in the hype for eth fight.  It’s fake! I am pretty sure the rematch will be on whatever the result.   But to get to the point of this post, I have identified the best bet to have on this “fight”.

The draw at 50-1 is a great bet.  It is still unlikely, but I believe the real odds of this happening is about 4-1 or 5-1.  I placed this bet a few weeks ago, way before McIlroy made his pronouncement.

The main reason to back a draw at these odds:

  1. Would you be surprised if it were a draw?  I would not!  Rory would not!  How gullible  are you?
  2. What are they actually fighting for?  Money! The best way to make most money (for bookies) is the draw.
  3. Has the sport of boxing never had a fix?  Why is it so trustworthy all of a sudden, especially given there is nothing at stake (except pride, yes I know).
  4. The sport of boxing is already losing its dignity by sanctioning this fight (according to some)
  5. Pride has a price:  especially if there is nothing really at stake. Ving Rhames’ Marcellus Wallace’s pep talk to Bruce Willis’ Butch in Pulp Fiction:  “I think you’re gonna find yourself when all this shit is over one smiling mother-fucker. …
    This dude might just get medieval on yo ass
    Marcellus Wallace chatting with Butch

    This business is filled to the brim with unrealistic mother-fuckers. … Night of the fight you might feel a slight sting.  That’s pride fucking with you.  Fuck Pride!  Pride only hurts it never helps!  Cos a year from now when you kicking in in the Caribbean, you gonna say to yourself, ‘Marcellus Wallace was right’.

  6. This is unprecedented; so whatever the outcome sets the precedent.  Be wise before the event!